Oscars 2024: Who Will Win and Who Should Win?

Image c/o Drew Paxman

By Drew Paxman
Editorial Designer/Visiting Entertainment Columnist

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Awards season is wrapping up and very few questions remain. This season’s Oscar races, with a few exceptions we will dive into, have cemented clear frontrunners in almost every above-the-line category. But that doesn’t mean we necessarily think those frontrunners should win.

In this article, you’ll see our final predictions for the above-the-line categories for the 2024 Academy Awards and who The Collegian staff thinks should win.

Best Picture

The nominees:

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Expected Winner: Oppenheimer
Staff Pick: Oppenheimer or Barbie

This one is a done deal. Christopher Nolan’s sweeping summer blockbuster biopic is (spoiler alert) set to dominate on Oscar night. Oppenheimer won best picture prizes at the Golden Globes (for Best Motion Picture - Drama), the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the BAFTAs in addition to picking up a win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the SAG Awards. Couple those wins with 13 nominations and you have a set frontrunner. Our staff, however, is more divided. While half of us sided with the likely winner, the other half favored its summer blockbuster sibling, Barbie. While our polling may have been close, don’t expect the same results on March 10.

Best Director

The nominees:

Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet
Killers of the Flower Moon - Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan
Poor Things - Yorgos Lanthimos
The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer

Expected Winner: Christopher Nolan
Staff Pick: Christopher Nolan

This one may be more set than Best Picture if you can believe that. Like his film in the Best Picture category, Nolan has won every best director award at the major precursors. Additionally, Nolan has never won an Oscar before, creating an “overdue” narrative that provides more incentive for voters to vote for him. Both our staff and awards voting bodies agree: Nolan’s directorial achievements are undeniable.

Best Actor

The nominees:

Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Colman Domingo - Rustin
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

Expected Winner: Cillian Murphy
Staff Pick: Cillian Murphy

More Oppenheimer dominance, though this category is less crystal clear. After taking home the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy and the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actor, Paul Giamatti seemed like the likely frontrunner for his starring turn in The Holdovers. However, after recent wins at the BAFTAs and SAG (in addition to his Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama at the Globes), Murphy has ascended to the frontrunner position. Our staff agrees that Murphy should win, but also note both Giamatti’s and Bradley Cooper’s performances as particularly stellar.

Best Actress

The nominees:

Annette Bening - Nyad
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Emma Stone - Poor Things

Expected Winner: Lily Gladstone
Staff Pick: Lily Gladstone or Emma Stone

The hardest category to predict. A case can easily be made for both Stone and Gladstone as far as who will win on Oscar night. Let’s start with the basics. Both Stone and Gladstone won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in their respective categories. Stone then went on to win the Critics’ Choice and the BAFTA, while Gladstone recently was the victor at SAG. A few external factors separate these two nominees, as well. First off, Gladstone has a much stronger narrative than Stone. Her win would signify the first Best Actress win for any indigenous person and, unlike Stone, would be her first win in the category (Stone previously won this award in 2017 for La La Land, so there may not be a desire to reward her a second time so soon). Disputes given whether Gladstone is in the right category given her limited screen time, however, hurt her campaign. Gladstone was also not nominated at BAFTA, a noteworthy miss given Killers of the Flower Moon’s success in securing nominations in other categories. 

This situation can very easily be compared to last year’s Best Actress race in which SAG and Golden Globe winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) defeated Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA winner Cate Blanchett (Tár) for the Oscar, becoming the first Asian-American actor to win Best Actress. While on the surface it seems like Gladstone’s case is identical to Yeoh’s, a couple factors separate this year’s race from last year’s: 1) Yeoh is a veteran actor and has been a force-to-be-reckon with in the film industry, creating an “overdue” narrative, and 2) Yeoh’s film went on to be the biggest Oscar winner since 2008, winning Best Picture and six other awards. Gladstone is a relatively new face in the film industry and does not have an “overdue” narrative like Yeoh. Additionally, Killers of the Flower Moon is firmly out of the Best Picture-winning conversation (Gladstone’s win would likely be the only one it would get). However, because of the significance of winning a SAG Award and because of similarities between Gladstone’s and Yeoh’s cases, we are hesitantly predicting Gladstone to win the Oscar.

Our staff is just as torn on our personal preference as we are on our prediction. Stone and Gladstone give star-marking performances in their respective films. While Gladstone is subtly brilliant, Stone is eccentrically commanding on the screen. We understand voter’s confusion in picking a winner.

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees:

Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr. - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

Expected Winner: Robert Downey, Jr.
Staff Pick: Robert Downey, Jr. or Ryan Gosling

Another addition to the Oppenheimer sweep. RDJ has this one in the bag. The former Avenger has won a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, BAFTA, and SAG Award for his performance as Lewis Strauss. 

At The Collegian, we are a little more mixed than the voting bodies. While we love Downey, Jr.’s performance, we are partial to Ryan Gosling’s comedic turn as Ken in Barbie. Unfortunately for him, Gosling’s performance might not have been Kenough to steal this Oscar away from Robert Downey, Jr.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees:

Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
America Ferrera - Barbie
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Expected Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Staff Pick: America Ferrera

Another easy one here. Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s hauntingly beautiful performance in The Holdovers has got her all four major precursors and plenty of critics awards. Like Supporting Actor, this race is over.

Our staff, however, preferred a different performance. Most of The Collegian staff voted for America Ferrera’s powerful performance as Gloria in Barbie. Her powerful monologue near the end sealed the deal for many of our writers.